🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."