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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still